استخدام نموذج ألتمان للتنبؤ بأزمة البنوك التجارية.استخدام نموذج ألتمان للتنبؤ بأزمة البنوك التجارية.

Abstract

The study aims to identify the capability of the model ‘ Altman’ the adjusted model in predicting the default of Libyan commercial banks The study relied on the descriptive analytical method as it is one of the most used methods in social and human studies. The indicators included in the composition of the adjusted ‘Altman’ model, the Z-Score indicator, and the return on assets (ROA) were calculated, and the necessary descriptive statistics were conducted to describe the study data. The horizontal analysis of the return on assets (ROA) was calculated as part of the requirements for testing the hypothesis and reaching the study results. The study population consisted of Libyan commercial banks. As for the study sample, the purposive sampling method was used by selecting the major banks for which data were available during the study period from 2012 to 2018, namely: National Commercial Bank, Al-Jumhouria Bank, Al Sahari Bank, and Al Wahda Bank.

 The study sample is considered representative of the entire population, as its assets account for more than 82% of the assets of the Libyan banking sector.

The study revealed a set of results, the most important of which is that the adjusted Altman model can predict the default of Libyan commercial banks, and that the banks in the study suffer from a decline in the return on assets (ROA) in each year of the study period.

The study recommended a set of recommendations, the most important of which is the use of the adjusted ‘Altman’ model by the research and statistics departments of commercial banks and the central bank to understand the financial situation and predict bank defaults. It also recommended conducting studies to predict the failure of commercial banks using other models.